1 Professor Dudenhöffer, 125 years after the invention of the automobile the car industry is now facing great challenges as a result of climate change, new emissions regulations and increasing fuel prices. How will the industry change?
The car is becoming green and smart. In 15 years’ time less than one third of all the vehicles sold will have only combustion engines; two thirds will be partially electric or electric. The second major area is semi-autonomous driving and assistance systems. The third large area of development is the low-cost car. A huge market is developing in that area in emerging markets.
2 One million electric cars are planned to be on the roads in Germany by 2020. How realistic is that target?
It will be difficult to achieve that with the current support provided in the field of electromobility. If we end up with 600,000 vehicles in 2020, that will be a good result. What’s making steady progress, however, is the hybrid. We will see a lot of movement in that area during the next 15 years. If Germany doesn’t make a bigger commitment to electromobility, the industrialization will take place abroad.
3 The main criticisms of electric vehicles are inadequate battery capacity and the lack of charging station infrastructure. Will the electric car remain a vehicle for short distances?
The purely battery-powered vehicle has great advantages in urban traffic and that’s where it will be deployed. There are better alternatives for long-distance journeys. That’s why the plug-in hybrid is definitely an ideal compromise solution until the time, perhaps in twenty years, when the conditions are right for fuel cells. Then there will be no more range limits.
4 Progress is only slowly being made on fuel cell technology because hydrogen is difficult to extract and a network of fuelling stations is still lacking. What chances do you give this technology?
We need time. On the one hand, the cost of the technology must become viable and, on the other, we need meaningful hydrogen production systems. Fuelling stations would come automatically with the advent of economic hydrogen production using renewable resources. We would then enter a realistic future of emission-free and silent mobility.
5 Compared to the international competition, where do German manufacturers stand when it comes to the development of environmentally friendly cars?
German car makers are actually better than their image. The German car industry simply hasn’t managed to convince people of their solutions. That also has something to do with the fact that some car makers continue to be very reluctant to commit to new things. When you’re world champion in diesel vehicles, you’re going to be afraid to get to grips with something new. The Japanese, the Koreans and soon the Chinese are more open-minded.
6 Will the solution for the greener car ultimately lie in efficient combustion engines and modern lightweight construction?
Lightweight construction is definitely important. Carbon-based materials will certainly play an important role. BMW is in the process of gaining a considerable advantage here. Combustion engines are not the future. The success story of combustion engine optimization has now been narrated by Germans for 50 years. Perhaps that’s also why we have the image of procrastinators. In extreme cases, the efficiency of combustion engines reaches roughly 35%, that of the electric engine roughly 95%.
7 Which kinds of beneficial new assistance systems are ready for the market?
When it comes to cars, we are gradually heading towards semi-autonomous driving, which will improve safety and comfort. The automatic parking assistant is a good example of the kind of control system that offers considerable benefits for customers. In the safety field, autonomous cruise control, blind spot monitoring, lane departure warning and night vision systems are taking us closer to “car to car” communication.
Interview: Oliver Sefrin
